Forecasting Websites

Eli Lifland is currently working on AGI forecasting and governance with the AI Futures Project. Eli advises Sage, an organization they cofounded, which focuses on AI explainers and forecasting tools. Previously, Eli worked at Ought on the AI research assistant Elicit. Eli has co-authored work on topics such as AGI scenario forecasting and AI alignment. Eli is interested in improving outcomes of superhuman AIs and considers themself part of the effective altruism movement. Eli has taken the Giving What We Can Pledge. Eli is also interested in judgmental forecasting and co-leads the Samotsvety Forecasting team. During their last year of college, Eli co-created TextAttack, a Python framework for adversarial attacks in NLP. Eli has degrees in computer science and economics from the University of Virginia.

Katja Grace is a researcher focused on understanding the future impacts of artificial intelligence. She co-founded AI Impacts, a long-running project examining empirical and conceptual questions relevant to AI forecasting and decision-making. Her work explores topics such as technological trajectories, expert prediction, model scaling, signaling, and anthropic reasoning. Katja previously studied human ecology and science communication. She co-authored a paper that became one of the most discussed scientific papers of 2017, and has been listed by Time Magazine among the 100 most influential people in AI. Katja writes at worldspiritsockpuppet.